Strategy: hold TQQQ (3× daily-leveraged QQQ) when QQQ is in an uptrend by a moving-average gate; otherwise sit in cash. This report compares two gate bands on the same instrument — the original 22/55 (enter ≥ SMA22, exit < SMA55) and a faster-exit 22/44 (same fast leg, slow leg 55→44). Only the slow leg changes; everything else — window, data, fill convention — is identical, so the two are directly comparable. Single instrument — this is not a QU100 basket. Start $100,000. Gross of trading costs (0 bp).
Window: 2020-10-01 → 2026-06-04 · 1,402 ranking-days (~5.7 yrs) on the same QU100 ranking-day calendar · TQQQ & QQQ = yfinance adjusted close (auto_adjust=False; folds in TQQQ's Jan-2022 split). Fills at same-day close (no look-ahead).
invested flag, start flat). The fast leg (SMA22) is shared; the slow leg is the only difference between the two variants:QQQ_close ≥ QQQ_SMA22 → RISK-ON → hold 100% TQQQQQQ_close < QQQ_SMA_slow → RISK-OFF → sell, hold cash (0%) (slow = SMA55 for the 22/55 variant, SMA44 for 22/44)SMA_slow ≤ close < SMA22 (the band) → HOLD previous state22/55 (original slow leg)
22/44 (faster exit — slow leg 55→44)
| Strategy | Total return | CAGR | Max DD | Ann vol | Sharpe | Time in mkt | Flips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TQQQ-gated (22/44) best | +807.3% | +47.5% | -39.8% | 45.4% | 1.10 | 72% | 76 |
| TQQQ-gated (22/55) strategy | +715.6% | +44.8% | -45.3% | 46.2% | 1.05 | 73% | 66 |
| TQQQ buy & hold | +420.9% | +33.8% | -81.7% | 66.4% | 0.78 | 100% | 0 |
| QQQ buy & hold | +171.6% | +19.3% | -35.1% | 22.4% | 0.92 | 100% | 0 |
| SPY buy & hold | +142.5% | +16.9% | -24.5% | 16.8% | 1.03 | 100% | 0 |
Log scale: both gated lines (green 22/55, amber dashed 22/44) track the B&H line (red) in bull legs, but B&H plunges in 2022 while the gated lines flatten in cash — that gap never closes, which is the whole edge. The amber 22/44 line steps off slightly earlier in the 2022 decline and ends the window a touch higher than green, the visual signature of its modest out-performance.
| Period | TQQQ-gated (22/55) | TQQQ-gated (22/44) | TQQQ B&H | QQQ B&H | SPY B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Q4 | +13.8% | +18.4% | +32.7% | +11.4% | +11.4% |
| 2021 | +22.9% | +42.1% | +83.0% | +27.4% | +28.7% |
| 2022 ← leverage decay | -35.6% | -33.4% | -79.1% | -32.6% | -18.2% |
| 2023 | +173.8% | +154.9% | +198.0% | +54.9% | +26.2% |
| 2024 | +54.5% | +55.4% | +58.3% | +25.6% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | +55.2% | +48.0% | +34.4% | +20.8% | +17.7% |
| 2026 YTD | +38.1% | +38.1% | +61.9% | +20.9% | +11.4% |
2022 is the whole story for leverage. QQQ fell -32.6% that year — but 3× daily leverage compounded that into -79.1% for TQQQ buy & hold (decay makes the leveraged loss far worse than 3×). Both gates sidestepped the worst of it by sitting in cash: 22/55 cut it to -35.6%, and the faster 22/44 to -33.4% — the tighter band tripped its exit ~2pp earlier in the decline, so it bled slightly less. That small 2022 edge is what carries the 22/44 variant's whole out-performance: a deeper recovery base compounds into the +807% vs +715% gap. Every other year the gates give up a little upside (they lag B&H in 2020 Q4, 2021, 2023, 2026 YTD by staying defensive or re-entering late — and 22/44 gives back more in 2023, +154.9% vs +173.8%, by re-entering later) — but 2022 alone more than pays for all of that lag for both bands.